Great question, Craig! You get 5 points for this one, and a tip o' the hat.
It's best not to roll this one out too fast. We want to hear lots of discussion, but I thought I'd get the ball rolling with a clue.
When 8 first steps up, six (6) points have already been awarded, with the average total (by post) being:
#1 - .984375
#2 - .984375
#3 - .98675
#4 - .9375
#5 - .875
#6 - .75
#7 - .5
Thus, if 8 runs out (i.e., no one else gets a point), Posts 1 and 2 are most likely to Place. But, Post 8 will only run out 1 time in 16, so the runout math is the red herring in this example.
Ergo, look for your solution among the 15 out of 16 times that #8 doesn't run out.
(moves to the sidelines)