Jai-Alai Chalk Talk Hall of Fame

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Re(1): sad,,,downrite pathetic payoffs

Posted on September 16, 2007 at 05:29:29 PM by Tiger

Putting on my mathlete hat, I can tell you confidently that if some combos are paying too low, then there must be others on the flip side. Let's do an example:

That represents 1,900 $2 tickets.

Let's assume that everyone knows the percentages, and bets are made in proportion to the expected combo's liklihood. See Craig G tables at Jai-Alai Heaven.

Take a most likely (142 or 241) and a not very likely (156 or 256), and run the numbers. Here's what you get:

Combo       	    142	            156
 	      (same as 241)   (same as 256)
Probability	0.0093434	0.0009058
1 chance in ???	      107	    1,104 
Net Pool   	    3,800 	    3,800 
$ Bet (net)	    35.50	     3.44
Payoff    	  $214.05	$2,207.99

Here are the last 10 1-2-4 payoffs at Dania:

The average is $184. We haven't even considered who is in those post positions.

Now, does that mean there is manipulation? $184 instead of $214. No, it only means that people are backing the 1-2-4 a bit more than its expectation would justify.

The people, you say? Yes, Jay, JS and Jim. YOU is the people, and YOU is makin' the odds.

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