Jai-Alai Chalk Talk Hall of Fame

Start of Thread

To Bada Bing re Fixed Odds Betting, Numbers Game, etc

Posted on December 6, 2003 at 02:21:20 PM by Craig G

I don't have a password on Cachin's site, so I am posting a response here.

Fixed Odds Betting

Many intelligent and educated people have already adressed this problem. If you google "parimutuel betting professor", you will get a lot of hits. Eg: "Efficiency Characteristics of a Parimutuel Market".

Fixed odds work out better for fixed probability events. Like if the state gives you a 500 to 1 payoff on a 1 in 1000 chance daily number.

Jai-alai is not like that. No one knows the true probability of any given game. Tiger, Factor X, Steve Skiena, and others, can all use a formula based on past peformance. But their formulas have obvious limitations.

If I am there in person, and my observations and judgement say that their selections are in poor form tonight, or some lesser player is on fire, I will have a very different opinion on the correct odds for that game.

Point is, since the true probablity of a game cannot be known, it is not practical to use fixed odds.

Anyway, if you spend a little time reading up on what the experts say about parimutuel betting, you will learn a lot.

Jai-alai is a Numbers Game

You have posted this many times, but never explained what you mean. What is a NUMBERS GAME?

Obviously, the spectacular 7 scoring system produces a bias toward certain numbers. But if the weakest team is in post 5, you are only going to see a 524 occur once out of a thousand times or so.

Jai-alai is a player's game with a strong bias toward certain numbers.

According to jai-alai theory, the most favorable posts are 1 and 2, which each have a 1 in about 6.2 chance of winning. And yet if you look at Perry's Picks, he is doing much better than that, about 1 in 4.25. Obviously he understand which players are better than others.

A jai-alai expert who has good opinions on the class and current form of all the players, AND understands the bias of the scoring sytem, will DESTROY anybody who says "Jai-alai is a numbers game".


Home Page