Jai-Alai Chalk Talk Hall of Fame

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You are missing the point

Posted on October 17, 2003 at 04:23:56 PM by Craig G

As I stated originally, there have many allegations of this type, always without any supporting evidence. By posting anonymously, you are just adding more of the same. The point of my message was to get away from all of that.

I try to approach jai-alai from a somewhat scientific perspective. In science, the merit of any idea, hunch, hypothesis, theory, or law is derived from its predictive value.

In this case, my study and simulation predicts that a potential "dump for place" or as you call it, "lock and feed", situation would occur about once every 20 games. And if the outcome splits fairly evenly, then it would be about 1 in 40 times that you would even have a chance to allege that cheating took place.

That works out to once per three performances. So if I bet someone $100 that no "lock and feed" situation would occur in an entire performance, I should expect to win 2 out of 3 times. That is a very concrete, testable prediction.

You have to consider that jai-alai games are right out in the open. Anyone watching can pay attention and see for themselves how often this occurs. It doesn't have to be "trust me, I know the players, and it happens."

There is no way around this, if any cheating took place it would have to show up in the record. And my records include date, game #, teams involved, scores, outcome of next point, final game result, and in some cases, an exact point-by-point sequence. People like Tiger have results archives, and could easily verify the plausibilty of my data. But that would be a lot of work for very little gain.

Final note - my study allows me to make one more prediction, and that is that people who make the dumping allegation are extremely unlikely to have any supporting data.


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