# Re(1): The Limits of Handicapping

## Posted on September 14, 2003 at 05:27:29 PM by Tiger

Starting with the theoretical constraints of rotation and scoring:

#1 and #2 are ~16.3% likely - say 1 chance in 6, or 5 to 1

#7 is ~8.8% likely - say 1 chance in 11, or 10 to 1

Now add your abilities, condition, temperament, partner affinities
(whatever turns you on), and how far up or down can you go from
that? A good question.

1 chance in 3 seems like a push to me - I think I'd say 1 in 4,
but that's still a stupendous rate. On the long end, the 1 in
20 sounds about right.

I add a routine to my history anaylzer to see how high/low my
individual ratings actually get.

It's actually a problem I deal with in my analysis, i.e., how
big a spread should I allow between best and worst.